India G20 Summit: Opportunities and Risks of the Summit for the Region

 

 

The India G20 Summit in September 2023, held in New Delhi, focused on global economic recovery, sustainable development, and inclusive growth. It culminated in the adoption of the "New Delhi Declaration," addressing climate change, digital transformation, and energy transition. A key topic was the security of the Indo-Pacific region, where countries like India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia underscored the importance of open, free, and inclusive maritime navigation, emphasizing the centrality of international law, particularly UNCLOS. However, China, with its assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea, and Russia, while supporting sovereignty and regional influence, did not fully align with these principles. India’s leadership played a crucial role in fostering multilateral dialogue on regional stability and security in the Indo-Pacific.

KEY POINTS

Geopolitical Tensions, Terrorism & Cybersecurity

The Summit addressed rising geopolitical tensions by stressing the importance of multilateral diplomacy and adherence to international law. Leaders emphasized peaceful conflict resolution, especially in regions like the Indo-Pacific, where territorial disputes and great power rivalries have heightened tensions. On counter-terrorism, the summit reinforced global cooperation, focusing on preventing the financing of terrorism, enhancing intelligence sharing, and tackling its root causes. Leaders also committed to strengthening international frameworks to combat cross-border terrorism. Regarding cybersecurity, the summit highlighted the growing threats to digital infrastructure, urging collaboration to secure critical systems, protect data, and build digital resilience. The discussions underscored the need for a coordinated global response to these pressing challenges.

Indo-Pacific Strategy & India's Leadership Role

Regarding the Indo-Pacific, the Summit underscored the strategic importance of the region, highlighting its role in global peace and stability. Leaders recognized the need to maintain a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, emphasizing respect for international law and peaceful dispute resolution. India's leadership was pivotal in promoting regional security, advocating for a rules-based order and encouraging multilateral cooperation. India also emphasized the need for enhanced connectivity, sustainable development, and maritime security, particularly in light of rising geopolitical tensions. Through its leadership, India fostered dialogue among G20 nations to address security challenges, while reinforcing its role as a key player in shaping global stability and highlighting its unique perspective as a developing nation. 

Climate Security & Global Health Security

On this occasion, the G20 tackled the security implications of climate change by recognizing its impact on global stability, including resource scarcity, displacement, and geopolitical tensions. Leaders emphasized the need for urgent action to mitigate climate risks, promote sustainable development, and strengthen resilience in vulnerable regions. The summit also highlighted the intersection of climate change and security, calling for integrated solutions to reduce environmental threats. On global health security, the summit stressed the importance of strengthening health systems, improving pandemic preparedness, and enhancing international cooperation to prevent future health crises. Leaders underscored the need for equitable access to vaccines, healthcare, and medical resources to ensure a collective response to global health challenges.

OPPORTUNITIES

Strengthening Maritime Security & Multilateral Cooperation

The summit underscored the importance of a rules-based international order, particularly in the maritime domain. Given the Indo-Pacific's crucial maritime lanes, the G20 called for greater engagement on combating piracy, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and enhancing maritime domain awareness. The Delhi Declaration included references to the need for maintaining open, inclusive, and rules-based maritime governance in the Indo-Pacific, reinforcing support for international conventions like the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The summit also placed significant focus on multilateralism and reinforcing existing security frameworks such as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), which includes India, the US, Japan, and Australia. While not directly binding, the summit reaffirmed the Quad's commitment to enhancing security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, with the potential for further defense and security collaborations. This was seen as a reinforcement of the Indo-Pacific security architecture.

Countering Terrorism & Violent Extremism

Counter-terrorism also emerged as a critical security priority, particularly for the Indo-Pacific, where extremist groups and transnational terrorist activities pose significant threats to regional stability. The summit emphasized the importance of collective action to combat terrorism in all its forms, including its financing, recruitment, and the use of digital platforms for radicalization. India, having faced terrorism-related challenges, advocated for stronger global cooperation to target terrorist networks and prevent the spread of extremist ideologies. The G20 summit underscored the need for a coordinated approach to combat terrorism, including sharing intelligence, enhancing border security, and strengthening international legal frameworks to address cross-border terrorism. Notably, the summit reiterated support for the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT), which aims to create a global legal instrument to combat terrorism, and stressed the importance of multilateral cooperation in eradicating violent extremism from the region.

Climate Change & Cybersecurity 

The 2023 G20 Summit recognized the interconnectedness of climate change and security in the Indo-Pacific, a region highly vulnerable to environmental disruptions like rising sea levels and extreme weather events. These challenges can destabilize nations, exacerbate migration, and strain resources, creating security risks. The summit emphasized the need for climate resilience in national and regional security strategies, encouraging joint efforts to address environmental impacts. At the same time, the G20 acknowledged the growing threat of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, particularly in critical infrastructure and supply chains. As the region's digital connectivity expands, cyberattacks targeting sectors like energy, finance, and defense become a significant concern. The summit called for stronger cybersecurity cooperation, promoting shared norms and bolstering capacity-building to safeguard against cyber threats. Together, these initiatives aim to fortify the Indo-Pacific's security landscape by addressing both environmental and digital risks that could destabilize the region’s peace and development.

RISKS

Increased Geopolitical Tensions & Unilateral Maritime Actions

The 2023 G20 Summit reinforced the rules-based order and highlighted the role of the Quad in ensuring stability in the Indo-Pacific. However, this could escalate geopolitical tensions, especially with China, which views the Quad and G20’s stance on maritime security as a challenge to its regional ambitions. The summit’s support for freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas, while important, may deepen rivalries between China and other regional powers. Without binding agreements on resolving territorial disputes, the risk of unilateral actions in contested maritime areas remains high. China’s assertive stance in the South China Sea, coupled with military expansion, could provoke incidents at sea or escalatory measures, destabilizing the region further. These tensions could result in conflict or undermine the security frameworks that the G20 aimed to strengthen.

Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities & Environmental Instability

While the 2023 G20 Summit emphasized cybersecurity cooperation and climate resilience, both issues present significant risks for Indo-Pacific security. The region's growing digital connectivity makes it increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks, which could target critical infrastructure like energy grids or communication networks. Despite calls for stronger collaboration, a lack of unified standards and resources could leave nations exposed to malicious actors, destabilizing both economies and security. Similarly, climate-induced instability poses a pressing risk, especially for Pacific island nations threatened by rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This environmental crisis could trigger large-scale migration, potentially leading to conflicts over resources, border tensions, and humanitarian crises. Moreover, resource scarcity driven by climate change could fuel instability, with states competing for access to fresh water, food, and energy, further exacerbating regional security challenges and adding complexity to the G20's climate-focused agreements.

Insufficient Action on Terrorist Financing

While the 2023 G20 Summit made strides in emphasizing counter-terrorism cooperation, there is a significant risk that the decisions made might not translate into tangible actions, particularly in addressing terrorist financing. Despite broad support for combating terrorism in all its forms, the summit did not offer specific, enforceable mechanisms to disrupt the financial networks that support terrorist groups in the Indo-Pacific, such as in Afghanistan or the southern Philippines. If international cooperation does not extend to monitoring and interdicting terrorist financing channels, including those facilitated by digital platforms, the region could remain vulnerable to the growth of extremist groups. Non-state actors in areas with weak governance, like Southeast Asia and parts of South Asia, could exploit these financial networks to fuel violence and destabilize fragile states. Without a robust framework for action, the risk of terrorism spreading in the region remains high.

TAKEAWAYS

• Strengthened Regional Collaboration.  The summit provides a crucial platform for enhancing cooperation among Indo-Pacific nations on security issues, potentially leading to more unified responses to regional challenges.
• India's Leadership Role. India’s position as a mediator and leader in the region is reinforced, promoting its vision for a multipolar world and strengthening ties with key partners like the Quad
• Focus on Comprehensive Security. Discussions highlighted the need for a holistic approach to security that encompasses traditional threats, cybersecurity, and climate-related challenges, addressing the interconnected nature of these issues.
• Geopolitical Tensions Remain. While opportunities for collaboration exist, underlying geopolitical rivalries, particularly with China, pose significant risks that could complicate regional stability.
• Need for Vigilance and Inclusivity. As nations pursue security partnerships, it's essential to remain vigilant about potential domestic and international repercussions, ensuring that development and inclusivity are not sidelined in the quest for security.