Xi Jinping has officially been handed an unprecedented third term as China's president during the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC). This event marked a significant consolidation of power, as it was the first time in decades that a Chinese leader served more than two terms, breaking with the norm established by Deng Xiaoping to prevent the emergence of another strongman. The NPC, China's top legislative body, voted overwhelmingly in favor of Xi's re-election, reflecting the extensive support he has cultivated within the Communist Party and the government. Overall, Xi's re-election reinforces his position as one of the most powerful leaders in modern Chinese history.
KEY POINTS
Unprecedented Third Term & Political Landscape
Xi's reelection solidifies his position as the most powerful leader in China since Mao Zedong, breaking the norm of two-term limits for the presidency. This norm was established by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after Mao's death in 1976, largely as a way to prevent the concentration of power that characterized the rule of Mao Zedong, and ensure more collective leadership and stability. However, in 2018 the National People's Congress voted to abolish these term limits, allowing Xi Jinping to potentially remain in power indefinitely. Xi's continued leadership underscores the centralization of power within the Communist Party, with a focus on loyalty and ideological alignment.
National People's Congress (NPC) & Support for Xi's Policies
The reelection occurred during the NPC's annual session, where the delegates reaffirmed its support for Xi's leadership style and policies, including his emphasis on national security, economic self-reliance, and a more assertive foreign policy. His ideological framework, "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era", was enshrined in the party constitution in 2017, elevating his ideological standing to that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, and reinforcing his authority while providing a philosophical justification for his policies. Xi has played a crucial role in reshaping the leadership structure at all levels of the CCP, ensuring that loyalists occupy key positions and solidifying control over party institutions and decision-making processes.
Increased Assertiveness & Strengthening Alliances
With Xi's reaffirmed leadership, China is likely to continue its assertive approach in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea and with respect to Taiwan. This may lead to heightened tensions with neighboring countries and increased military presence in the region, prompting concerns among other nations about China's intentions. Xi's third term may also drive countries in the Indo-Pacific to strengthen alliances and partnerships in response to perceived Chinese expansionism. The U.S., Japan, India, and Australia might enhance their collaborative security frameworks, such as the Quad, to counterbalance China's influence, leading to a more polarized regional environment.
OPPORTUNITIES
Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement, Regional Dialogue Mechanisms & Confidence-Building Measures
With Xi maintaining a consistent leadership style, there may be opportunities for more predictable diplomatic engagements with neighboring countries. Stability in leadership can lead to clearer, more consistent foreign policy, allowing for negotiations on trade, security, and regional issues. It also could encourage the strengthening of existing regional security dialogues and multilateral forums, such as the ASEAN Regional Forum or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These platforms could facilitate discussions on security concerns, fostering greater understanding and cooperation among member states. Furthermore, Xi could promote confidence-building measures, such as arms control agreements or transparency initiatives regarding military capabilities. By engaging in dialogue about military expenditures and deployments, regional powers could reduce misunderstandings and lower the risk of conflict.
Counterterrorism Collaboration & Maritime Security Cooperation
Xi's government might prioritize joint initiatives and collaborative efforts to combat terrorism and extremism. By sharing intelligence and coordinating counterterrorism operations, countries in the region could enhance their security and stability. In Southeast Asia, strengthening ties would bolster China's influence in a region where it competes with the U.S. and other powers, as well as helping safeguard Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments and infrastructure projects, facilitating trade and economic integration. In Central Asia, cooperation could help prevent the spread of radical ideologies that could affect China’s Xinjiang region, promoting domestic stability. Further cooperation could also be applied in the maritime domain with more cooperative naval exercises and initiatives aimed at ensuring freedom of navigation in critical shipping lanes. These efforts could help mitigate tensions in contested waters while promoting a collective approach to maritime challenges.
Crisis Management Frameworks & Disaster Response Coordination
Given the Indo-Pacific's vulnerability to natural disasters, Xi's administration could champion regional frameworks for disaster response and humanitarian assistance. Collaborative efforts in this area would not only build trust but also improve overall regional resilience. Developing frameworks for collective security helps address transnational threats more effectively, positioning China as a leader in regional stability efforts. Xi’s reelection could also lead to the establishment or strengthening of crisis management mechanisms among regional powers. Effective communication during times of tension—such as territorial disputes or natural disasters—could mitigate conflicts and enhance stability. In terms of strategic competition with the United States, the creation of these frameworks and mechanisms could reduce the leverage of foreign actors during periods of vulnerability and crisis in the region, potentially positioning China as a provider of assistance and control of the emerging crisis.
RISKS
Increased Assertiveness in Territorial Disputes
Xi's reelection may lead to heightened assertiveness in territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Xi recently reiterated China's historical claims to the South China Sea, portraying them as non-negotiable. China continues to bolster its military presence in disputed areas, including conducting naval exercises and deploying advanced military assets, which served both as a show of strength and a deterrent against perceived challenges from other claimant countries and the United States. Xi's administration ramped up rhetoric against external influences, particularly from the U.S. This included framing Western interventions as destabilizing forces in the region, positioning China as a champion of regional security and stability. Heightened assertiveness could escalate tensions with neighboring countries and potentially lead to military confrontations.
Increased Regional Militarization & Challenges to Freedom of Navigation
As China expands its military capabilities, other countries in the region may feel compelled to bolster their own defense systems. This could lead to an arms race, raising tensions and the likelihood of miscalculations in a crisis. From the turn of the century to 2010, total defense spending in the region increased by approximately $150 billion, and with an even faster pace from 2010 to 2023 with an increase of approximately $250 billion. This means that so far this century, the defense spending in the Indo-Pacific has grown by approximately $400 billion, an increase of 400% in military expending, considering the budgets of China, India, Japan, Australia, and Southeast Asia collectively. Furthermore, China's assertion of control over disputed maritime areas could challenge international norms regarding freedom of navigation, provoking responses from other powers, such as the U.S., and leading to increased military presence and potential clashes in the region.
Geopolitical Polarization & Destabilizing Proxy Conflicts
In response to Xi's heightened assertiveness and military expansionism, the U.S. may strengthen alliances (e.g., AUKUS, Quad) and increase military presence in the region, escalating tensions further. Moreover, Xi's commitment to the BRI could further entrench China's economic and political influence in the Indo-Pacific, which the U.S. views as a challenge to its own influence. This type of "Debt Diplomacy" could lead to concerns among regional nations about sovereignty and economic dependence on China, tying certain countries more tightly to their spheres of influence and increasing polarization. China's increased assertiveness could also inspire or provoke proxy conflicts, with smaller nations caught in the middle of great power rivalries. Taiwan is a critical point of contention. If tensions escalate between China and Taiwan, smaller nations in the region may be pressured to take sides. The U.S. could support Taiwan militarily and diplomatically, prompting China to respond aggressively, potentially drawing in neighboring countries and creating a broader regional conflict.
TAKEAWAYS